While last week's Monday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers drove home just how quickly teams can fall from grace in the wild and wacky National Football League, this week's matchup between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys represents just how unpredictable the league has become.
After struggling while dealing with tumultuous events on and off the field last season, the Redskins were supposed to be back in 2014. More than a full year removed from reconstructive knee surgery, franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III was supposed to be fresh. Same with top pass rusher Brian Orakpo, who was eased back in 2013 from a pair of pectoral injuries.
Beyond Griffin and Orakpo, this was a team that looked as though it possessed a solid mix of youth and experience, and in the offseason they finally had a chance to break from salary-cap shackles. Big-name free-agent pickups Jason Hatcher, DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts provided obvious upgrades on either side of the ball.
And after Griffin and Mike Shanahan butted heads, new coach Jay Gruden seemed to have a smooth summer working with his world-famous quarterback. It was all sunshine, rainbows and lollipops in D.C.
Meanwhile in Dallas, the Cowboys entered this season as a punch line. Salary cap constraints once again kept a perennial mediocre team on the sideline during free agency, and a defense that gave up the third-highest yardage total in NFL history last season lost three Pro Bowl-caliber front-seven defenders in the offseason.
The Cowboys' all-time sack leader, DeMarcus Ware, was a cap cut. Linebacker Sean Lee, the team's best remaining defender, suffered a season-ending knee injury. And the aforementioned Hatcher, a veteran defensive tackle who had a career year, took a boat-load of cash from the division-rival Redskins.
But here we are in the final week of October, and the Cowboys are nearly a double-digit favorite to beat the Redskins in Arlington. If that happens, Jerry Jones' team will reclaim the best record in the NFL at 7-1, while the Redskins will fall to 2-6, digging even closer to rock bottom.
Dallas has already knocked off a pair of 2013 NFC playoff teams in New Orleans and Seattle, while Washington's two wins have come against the Titans and Jaguars -- a pair of teams with a combined record of 3-11 heading into Week 8.
The Dallas defense is somehow ... average? And the offense is exceeding expectations in every area. As for the Redskins, they're on their third quarterback in less than half a season. Griffin has thrown 40 passes and is still nursing an injured ankle, while Orakpo has already been sent to injured reserve with yet another torn pectoral.
This isn't how things were supposed to play out, but that's the NFL for you -- and the NFC East in particular. Nobody can be trusted. But that's exactly why we really can't confidently predict that the healthier, hotter, deeper home team will win convincingly -- or at all -- on Monday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Fourteen things to know...
1. Are the Cowboys truly the best team in football?
Jason Garrett is pressing all the right buttons so far in 2014. (USATSI)
Their record entering Week 8 indicated they were, but we've seen plenty of phonies this early. However, going beyond their win-loss record, the Cowboys have given us plenty of reason to believe they're the NFL's best team.
It's not just that they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest, becoming just the second team to accomplish that feat since the end of the 2011 season.
And it's not just that running back DeMarco Murray just became the first player in NFL history to rush for 100 or more yards in each of the first seven games of a season. Or that entering Week 8 Murray led the league in rushing by a 298-yard margin.
And it's not just that quarterback Tony Romo Romo leads the NFL with a completion percentage of 69.2 while ranking third in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating and third in QBR.
And it's not just that the pass-catching trio of Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Terrance Williams has a combined 87 catches, 11 of which have gone for touchdowns.
And it's not just that they have arguably the best offensive line in the game, a unit which has given up only six sacks in seven games and is led by stud 23-year-old left tackle Tyron Smith, who recently became the first offensive lineman in a decade to be named Offensive Player of the Week.
Those guys were supposed to dominate. Maybe not to this extent, but the expectations were high right across the board for this offense.
No, it's that the defense has somehow transformed from massive liability to -- at the very least -- modest asset.
Addition by subtraction is the only explanation for how a unit missing the three players who received the highest defensive grades on the team from Pro Football Focus last season somehow entered Week 8 ranked ninth in terms of points allowed per game, 14th in terms of yards allowed per game and seventh in terms of takeaways per game.
Only 29.3 percent of their opponents' offensive drives have resulted in points, which ranks sixth in the NFL. Last year, that rate was at 39.7, ranking 30th.
| Cowboys defense: 2013 vs. 2014 | ||
| Stat | 2013 | 2014 |
| Points/game allowed | 27.0 (26th) | 21.0 (T-9th) |
| Yards/game allowed | 415.3 (32nd) | 343.9 (14th) |
| Yards/play allowed | 6.1 (T-29th) | 6.1 (T-27th) |
| First downs/game allowed | 24.3 (32nd) | 17.4 (1st) |
| YPA/allowed | 7.8 (T-26th) | 7.1 (T-10th) |
| Passer rating against | 96.0 (26th) | 88.5 (12th) |
| Third downs | 43.8% (29th) | 41.2% (16th) |
| PFF grade | -118.7 (29th) | 19.0 (10th) |
| TD/FG allowed per drive | 39.7 (30th) | 29.3 (6th) |
They've done that despite the recent absence of starting linebacker Bruce Carter, while former Pro Bowl defensive linemen Anthony Spencer and Henry Melton have been limited. But Carter is on the verge of returning from a thigh injury and Spencer and Melton appear to be gaining ground each week. So don't be surprised if this D actually gets better.
And it's also that those aforementioned offensive stars aren't just delivering, but that they're doing it when it matters most -- when elite players on elite teams typically step up.
In the second half of games, Romo has been the league's best quarterback and Bryant has been the league's best receiver.
| Best in the second half, 2014 | |||
| Rank | Passer rating | Rushing yards | Receiving yards |
| 1st | Tony Romo (127.4) | DeMarco Murray (403) | Dez Bryant (399) |
| 2nd | Aaron Rodgers (122.9) | Arian Foster (300) | Golden Tate (397) |
| 3rd | Andrew Luck (109.6) | Le'Veon Bell (288) | Steve Smith (349) |
And on third down, they've often been unstoppable, ranking first in the league by a wide margin overall as well as on third-and-longs.
| Third downs, 2014 | ||
| Rank/team | Conversion rate | 3rd-and-10 or more |
| 1. Dallas Cowboys | 0.574 | 0.429 |
| 2. San Diego Chargers | 0.524 | 0.391 |
| 3. Kansas City Chiefs | 0.519 | 0.368 |
| 4. New Orleans Saints | 0.5 | 0.321 |
| 5. Green Bay Packers | 0.458 | 0.304 |
| NFL average | 0.415 | 0.217 |
I mean, look at Romo's numbers on third down, especially in the last two weeks:
| Tony Romo on third down | ||||
| Time span | Comp.% | TD-INT | YPA | Rating |
| 2014 season | 70.6 | 1-Jun | 9.6 | 124.1 |
| Last 2 weeks | 83.3 | Mar-00 | 12.3 | 157.5 |
They've simply risen to the every occasion that has requested it. Just last week, the Giants had stolen all of the momentum and were holding a 14-7 lead in the second quarter. The air has been sucked out of the building. But the Cowboys responded with a six-minute, 10-play touchdown drive that featured two third-down conversions.
They might have never gotten that momentum back had it not been for third-down perfection like this on the first set of downs:
They did something similar when New York made it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. If this doesn't happen on second-and-long on that drive, who knows how the game might have ended:
And in Seattle the week prior, they had no business winning as an underdog on the road with a muffed punt, a botched snap resulting in a turnover and a blocked punt leading directly to a Seahawks touchdown. But they kept rallying, making plays whenever it mattered most.
The Cowboys probably don't win that game without these two unforgettable third-down plays from that final touchdown drive.
Here's the first:
Here's the second:
So yeah, they've probably been the best thus far, both statistically and when it comes to the eyeball test. If there was a way to measure clutch, Dallas would lead the league in that category. And that's key.
But seven weeks don't make a season. This century, 29 teams have started exactly 6-1, but 31 percent of those teams failed to win their division. Only two went on to win the Super Bowl (the 2013 Seahawks and the 2004 Patriots), while four missed the playoffs entirely.
At this point, you'd think the ‘Boys would be a shoo-in for January football, but there's no such thing in October. Just ask the 2009 Broncos, the 2002 Saints, the 2002 Chargers and the 2000 Jets, all of whom were golfing in January despite 6-1 starts.
2. Could the Redskins be the worst?
Jay Gruden has just two wins in his first season as Redskins coach. (USATSI)
Parity is king nowadays, and only four teams -- the Jets, Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers -- have worse records than the Redskins. So the question is legit. And when you're coming off a 3-13 season and you don't have your No. 1 quarterback, your top pass rusher and your best cornerback, you've gotta be in the running.
Again, this team has only beaten the lowly Jaguars and Titans, with the second victory coming in nailbiter fashion at home. Outside of those two games, they're 0-13 since Week 10 of last season.
Right now, it would still be hard to place the Raiders or Jaguars ahead of Washington, and the Bucs, Jets, Titans, Vikings and Rams are certainly in the same orbit. But nobody can dispute that, right now, the ‘Skins are a mess.
What's sad is that, on paper, they're better than all of those aforementioned pushovers. Injuries to Griffin, Orakpo and DeAngelo Hall certainly factor in, but this is still a team that continues to do all of the little things wrong.
They lack execution, they look under-prepared, they take too many penalties, they give up too many big plays. It's the same stuff that hurt them last year and the same stuff that will continue to hurt them next year if Gruden can't take a major step forward and they can't make some significant progress with the current personnel, as well as in the draft and free agency.
What I'm saying is that while it's encouraging that this team battled back to win 10 games after a 3-6 start in 2012 and found a way to win eight games after an 0-5 start in 2001, Redskins fans probably shouldn't get their hopes up that lightning will strike the same spot for a third time this century in 2014.
Despite having Orakpo, Hatcher and top sack man Ryan Kerrigan up front, they've given up six 20-or-more-yard touchdowns this season. Only three teams have surrendered more. I mean, only very bad teams let quarterbacks like Charlie Whitehurst and journeyman receivers like Derek Hagen do this to them in the fourth quarter of a close game:
And when you're already fighting an uphill battle, this just can't happen:
| Most yards penalized, 2014 | ||
| Rank | Team | Total |
| 1. | Patriots | 590 |
| 2. | Redskins | 529 |
| 3. | Titans | 524 |
A question to ponder: When's the last time the Redskins completely hit on a draft pick?
I know a lot of it falls on Shanahan, but I can't find one from the last two years. Jury's still out on a lot of those guys, but Jordan Reed can't stay healthy and David Amerson has a ways to go before he can be considered a reliable starter.
Running back Alfred Morris was of course a superb sixth-round selection three years ago, and 2012 fourth-round Keenan Robinson is beginning to deliver as well, but Griffin is flirting with the bust label at this point and he's the reason they didn't have first-round picks in the following two drafts.
Aside from Morris, there isn't one player from the last three drafts who is currently consistently contributing in a positive way. That's a big problem, and it explains why the Redskins are 2-5 and likely to miss the playoffs for the second straight year.
The silver lining is that this year, they're actually going to possess a first-round pick. And based on the way things are going, it might be a pretty damn high one to boot.
| 2-5 teams since the 1970 merger | |
| Total | |
| 2-5 teams | 203 |
| 2-5 teams to make the playoffs | 5 |
| 2-5 teams to win the Super Bowl | 0 |
3. It might not be a walk in the park for DeMarco Murray
The guy was able to pick up 115 rushing yards against the vaunted Seahawks, so there's no way I'm willing to predict that his century streak will come to an end on Monday night, but it should be noted that the Washington defense has surrendered just 3.8 yards per carry this season.
I know, the Jaguars, Giants, Cardinals and Titans don't exactly rock out on the ground, but in the last two weeks the ‘Skins have held talented young backs Andre Ellington and Bishop Sankey to just 123 combined yards on 35 carries (3.5 yards per attempt). They also held Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster in check and absolutely smothered LeSean McCoy.
Foster is the only back who's been able to hit the 100-yard mark against them, and it took him 27 carries to do so back in Week 1.
Of course, Murray's used to being worked that hard. He's carried the ball at least 28 times in four of his seven games, which is pretty amazing considering he had never carried it more than 26 times during the first three seasons of his career. The 26-year-old is on pace to set a new NFL record with 427 rushing attempts.
So although he's never had 100 yards in five career games against the Redskins, Murray may hit the century mark simply by running all day in what could be a lopsided game. Just don't expect him to carry the team on his shoulders Monday night.
If you can stop both Murray and Bryant, you've got it made. The Cowboys gone to those two on 63.3 percent of the offensive plays they've run this season, and that duo is responsible for 59.0 percent of the team's yardage total.
The problem is it's almost impossible to stop them both.
Bryant knows defenses are forced to pick between arsenic and cyanide. The outspoken receiver said as much back in September when he suggested that Murray would simply “run for 150 or 200 or more” yards if the Saints were to double-team him. New Orleans did exactly that and Murray ran for 149.
And while Bryant has traditionally struggled a tad against the Redskins -- he's gone over 100 yards only once against them in seven meetings -- this might be his turn to have a huge day against the boys in burgundy.
And that's because the Redskins are without veteran corner DeAngelo Hall, who has had Murray's number in the past. In their last three matchups, Bryant has caught just 11 passes on 24 targets with Hall in coverage, scoring zero touchdowns, according to numbers from Pro Football Focus.
Now he'll be facing either the young Amerson, who is giving up completions on 74.4 percent of his targets this season, or rookie Bashaud Breeland, who's been beaten 74.2 percent of the time. Not a lot of experience versus a guy like Bryant.
They'll get some help from veteran safeties Brandon Meriweather and Ryan Clark, but those two have been responsible for five passing touchdowns this season. Clark has lost a step at 35 and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 139.9 when throwing toward Meriweather this season.
Throw in that the Washington pass rush could have trouble getting any pressure on Romo behind that jacked-up offensive line without Brian Orakpo and you have the recipe for a monster game through the air from the Cowboys.
5. Colt McCoy stands a chance
Colt McCoy returns to Texas Monday night. (USATSI)Griffin is listed as questionable, but Gruden has stated that he won't play until that ankle is 100 percent. So most signs still point to Washington using its third starting quarterback in eight weeks, with veteran clipboard-holder Colt McCoy making a start for the first time since he was with the Browns in 2011.
Not a good omen for the ‘Skins, because McCoy flamed out in Cleveland, winning just six of 21 starts and throwing just 21 touchdown passes to 20 interceptions.
Redskins fans will have to hope that the former Longhorn can recapture some of that Fiesta Bowl magic in his home state. And while I wouldn't expect McCoy to carry this or any NFL offense right now, he does have a few things going for him:
- He looked good last week in relief of Kirk Cousins, completing 11 of his 12 passes while leading the ‘Skins to a comeback victory over Tennessee. He was dinking and dunking much of the day, and that 70-yard touchdown actually came on a fairly short and easy throw, but he did show off some serious accuracy.
- Last week, behind an offensive line that is inconsistent yet talented, he was pressured on only three of 15 dropbacks. This week, he faces a pass rush that is short on weapons and has struggled throughout the year. Entering Week 8, eight players had more sacks than the entire Dallas team.
| Fewest sacks, 2014 | ||
| Team | Total | Sack rate |
| Rams | 4 | 2.2 |
| Raiders | 6 | 3 |
| Cowboys | 7 | 3 |
| 3 others | 7 | N/A |
| Entering Week 8 | ||
- He's got a lot of support with Pro Bowlers at left tackle (Trent Williams), running back (Alfred Morris) and wide receiver (DeSean Jackson). The Redskins are relatively healthy on offense and have one of the deepest groups of pass-catchers in football. That should make things a lot easier on a veteran like McCoy.
No matter how bad things became last season, Morris was a rock for this offense. But behind basically the same offensive line and with the same running scheme in place, the third-year back has struggled throughout the 2014 campaign.
He's yet to go over the 100-yard mark and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 35th among 52 qualifying backs. Last year, he had 10 runs beyond 20 yards and 29 that gained 10-plus. This year, he's gone over 20 yards just twice and 10 yards on only 10 occasions.
| The decline of Alfred Morris | ||
| Stat | 2013 | 2014 |
| 100-yard games | 3 | 0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Yards per game | 79.7 | 62.9 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 3 |
| 20-yard runs | 10 | 3 |
And he's been particularly bad the last three weeks, picking up just 124 yards on 44 carries.
| Lowest yards-per-attempt averages since Week 5 | |
| Lowest yards-per-attempt averages since Week 5 | Total |
| Alfred Morris | 2.82 |
| Andre Ellington | 3.17 |
| Andre Williams | 3.18 |
| Min. 30 carries | |
Offensive instability never helps, and that line has been far from perfect. Tyler Polumbus shouldn't be an NFL starter, Williams is only an OK run blocker and the interior linemen have failed to stand out while often getting pushed around.
Still, as former Redskins tight end Chris Cooley points out -- per the Washington Post -- some of this falls on Morris himself:
“I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this run game's blocked-up exceptionally throughout the entire game by everyone involved. But I will tell you that [Morris] had an opportunity to have 100 yards on the ground [against Tennessee], if he reads his keys in the run game and finds the right fits. He missed a lot of plays.”
Cooley went on to point out that Morris could have had a huge gain had he bounced this first-quarter run outside:
Another example for good measure:
Cooley added that Morris is “setting up blocks really poorly” and isn't breaking tackles. It's hard to argue against those points, and it does appear he's been guessing too often. I don't know where his vision went, but that development is really hurting this offense.
Gruden and McCoy need Morris to finally put things back together against a Cowboys team who he's always performed well against.
| Alfred Morris vs. the Cowboys | |
| Morris vs. Cowboys | Total |
| Games | 4 |
| Yards | 482 |
| YPA | 5 |
| TD | 6 |
7. Addition by subtraction in Dallas
The Cowboys defense has guys like Sterling Moore (right) stepping up every week. (USATSI)We touched on this earlier, but it's worth stressing just how remarkable it is that the Cowboys have somehow become better on defense despite losing Ware, Hatcher and Lee. And they've seemingly added by subtracting in the defensive backfield, too.
That's because they're no longer stubbornly playing 2012 No. 6 overall pick Morris Claiborne, who is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon.
Last year, the Cowboys began to realize that longtime nickel and dime corner Orlando Scandrick was actually much more reliable than Claiborne in coverage while also possessing more versatility as a tackler and a blitzer. This year, Scandrick is entrenched as a starter alongside the highly-paid Brandon Carr, and it appear Dallas is realizing that new nickel man Sterling Moore is also more of an asset than Claiborne.
Moore, who went undrafted in 2011, was actually PFF's sixth highest rated corner entering Week 8. In coverage, he's given up only one passing play beyond 20 yards. He's also feisty, a strong tackler and good against the run.
With Carr, Scandrick, Moore and safety Barry Church all rolling, this Dallas secondary has become a strength. That'll come in handy against Washington's loaded receiving corps, especially if they don't have to continually worry about a Claiborne being a liability.
8. Trent's turn
With Orakpo, Hall and Barry Cofield injured and London Fletcher retired, this Washington defense is without four of its key veteran leaders from last season. That stings, but it also means we get to see what young guys like Amerson, Breeland, Keenan Robinson and Chris Baker have in them.
Oh, and now, whether he's ready or not, the Trent Murphy era is about to begin. The rookie second-round pick will make his first career start in place of Orakpo on Monday night, and there are a lot of people hoping he'll be able to prove capable of replacing Orakpo long-term.
He's yet to record a sack and has just nine tackles on 181 snaps, but Murphy had 25 sacks during his final two seasons at Stanford and has the pedigree and the technique to become a special player.
Now he gets to make his starting debut against the league's third-rated offense.
9. Advanced stat of the week
According to PFF, Murray has 536 rushing yards after contact this season. Only two other backs entered Week 8 with more yards in total. He also leads the NFL with 377 yards before contact, and one can only assume he's the league leader in yards during contact.
The point is he's been a beast, and it's not just about that top-notch offensive line. The Redskins have missed 51 tackles this season, which was the eighth-highest total in the NFL headed into Week 8. They have to wrap Murray up, or they'll pay dearly.
10. Under-the-radar stat(s) of the week
All of this talk about the Cowboys' improved defense, but the key has probably been the fact the offense is doing everything in its power to keep that unit off the field. Through seven weeks, opposing offenses had run a league-low 58 plays per game against the Cowboys. That's down significantly from their 70.2 average in 2013.
New play caller Scott Linehan has emphasized the run in a major way, and thus far it has paid off because Dallas is completely controlling games on offense.
| Cowboys and ball control | ||
| Stat | 2013 | 2014 |
| Plays against per game | 70.2 (26th) | 58.0 (1st) |
| Plays for per game | 61.7 (32nd) | 68.0 (11th) |
| Time of possession | 29:02 (26th) | 34:35 (2nd) |
| Offensive third downs | 35.6 (25th) | 57.4 (1st) |
| Run play % | 35.1 (29th) | 51.0 (2nd) |
11. Injuries to watch
Griffin's status is obviously of utmost importance, but each team is also monitoring a linebacker. It looks as though the Redskins will get Perry Riley back after the 26-year-old missed two games with a knee injury. Will Compton's been starting in his place, but Riley is officially probable for Monday night.
Meanwhile, Dallas might also get a 26-year-old starting linebacker back, as Bruce Carter is questionable. Carter had been having a breakout season before missing the last three weeks due to a thigh injury.
12. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
These teams are division rivals, so some of this might actually matter.
- This will be their 107th meeting. The Cowboys have played the Redskins more than any other team. They lead the all-time series 64-40 with two ties.
- The Cowboys have won eight of their last 11 games against Washington and six of their last eight at home.
- Dallas swept the two-game season series in 2011 and 2013, but Washington swept the Cowboys in 2012. They've split just once since 2009.
- The Redskins have lost eight straight games within the NFC East, while the Cowboys have won six of their last seven divisional games.
- Dating to 2010, the Cowboys have lost three of their last four Monday Night Football games, the most recent two of which came against Chicago. In those three losses, they gave up a total of 120 points.
- But the Redskins have lost seven consecutive prime-time games. Their last prime-time victory came against the Cowboys in that do-or-die 2012 finale. They've also lost eight of their last nine MNF games.
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Which city is cooler? | |||
| Topic | Washington | Dallas | Winner |
| Best claim to fame | Prez resides there | Prez was assassinated there | Washington |
| Celebrities | Samuel L. Jackson, Katherine Heigl | Owen Wilson, Usher | Tie |
| Hottest celebrity | Bridgit Mendler | Piper Perabo | Washington |
| Last call | 3 a.m. | 2 a.m. | Washington |
| Nickname | Nation's Capital | Big D | Dallas |
This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 14.
14. Prediction: Momentum will matter
Momentum is a dangerous factor to use when assessing football teams and football games, but when you're at home in prime time and riding a five-game winning streak, and when you're facing a team that hasn't beaten an opponent with a winning record in almost a year, it's something to consider. The Cowboys should romp here.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter . Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
NFL Hot News
Saints RBs Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas out for Week 8
New Orleans beat writer Mike Triplett tweeted Friday that running backs Pierre Thomas (rib/shoulder) and Khiry Robinson (forearm) will both miss Sunday night's tilt with the Green Bay Packers. With the RB tandem sidelined, the Saints will turn to Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet to shoulder the rushing load. Ingram returned from a hand injury in Week 7 and was the lead back. However, he got stuffed for only 16 yards on 10 carries against the Lions' defense. Cadet figures to fill Thomas' role as a receiving back. He's put up 15 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown over the past three games.
This should be a high-scoring game. The Saints are currently a 3-point favorite. With the Packers' pass defense being much better than their run defense, you can almost bank on Ingram finding the end zone. With Robinson and Thomas out, he is a low-end RB2 option this week.Cadet is also someone that may be worth a look this week, especially in PPR leagues. He figures to be involved in the passing game. If TE Jimmy Graham ends up missing the game or is limited in his snaps, that would also increase Cadet's value.
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