NFL playoffs: DEN, IND can clinch in Week 14

A few teams made statements in Week 13, including several that took home key road wins:

• Philadelphia won at Dallas to stake a claim to the NFC East lead


• Green Bay outplayed New England in the latest mega-matchup


• Seattle tamed San Francisco on the road and jumped back into a playoff slot


• Cincinnati earned a nail-biting win at Tampa Bay to become the lone AFC North winner of the week


• Denver went to frigid Kansas City and completed a season sweep of the Chiefs


• San Diego jumped into the AFC No. 5 seed position with a road win at Baltimore

We lost the New York Giants and Washington Redskins from playoff contention during Week 13 but still have 26 teams left, which is the lowest number of teams alive for the playoffs with four weeks to play since 2009 (26).

The Colts could become the first team to clinch a playoff berth. (USATSI)

As we head into Week 14, we have one solid playoff clinching scenario and two other scenarios that will require at least six outcomes each.

The Indianapolis Colts can clinch the AFC South division title with:

1) A WIN + Houston loss

A Colts win at Cleveland next week will get Indy to 9-7 at worst and a Texans loss at Jacksonville will leave Houston at 9-7 at best. Houston can still split the season head-to-head series on Week 15 and they could tie Indy in division record at 4-2. However, Indianapolis would win the tiebreaker with Houston on record against common opponents at 8-4 vs. 6-6. Thus, an Indy win and Houston loss clinches the AFC South for the Colts.

The Denver Broncos can clinch an AFC playoff spot with:

1) A WIN + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss + Cleveland loss + Houston loss or tie + KC loss

2) A WIN + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss + Cleveland loss + Houston loss or tie + SD loss + KC tie

With a win Denver gets to 10-6 at worst and 8-4 in the conference. With Kansas City's 6th loss, only San Diego beats out Denver in the west due to Denver's sweep of Kansas City and even in a three-way tie with San Diego the Broncos beat the Chiefs. In the South, with a Houston loss/tie, only the division winner beats out Denver.

In the AFC North, giving Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland their 6th losses is key and the Pittsburgh loss to Cincinnati guarantees that the Bengals would finish no worse than 10-5-1 and win the North as they would beat Denver in Week 16 in this scenario. Pittsburgh can finish tied with Denver on conference record at 8-4, but with the Steelers' loss to Cincinnati the Broncos would win the two-team tiebreaker on common opponents (4-1 to 3-2). Baltimore and Cleveland couldn't catch Denver as they have worse conference records and no head-to-head advantage.

In the AFC East only two teams can get in over Denver. Buffalo would have six losses and a head-to-head loss to Denver and have a worse conference record. The Bills can still win the division, but in a three-way tie with New England and Miami, the Dolphins would finish second due to a sweep of Patriots and would lose the tiebreaker to Denver on a head-to-head loss.

So you have no teams in the South to beat Denver for the wild card, no teams in the North and one team plus a division winner in the East. The final consideration to keep Denver out is can Pittsburgh with their 8-4 conference record use a team in the East in a three-way tie and in each case Denver comes out on top (PIT/BUF/DEN and PIT/NE/DEN) or no worse than second (PIT/MIA/DEN).

In the second scenario, the South, North and East scenarios remain intact and in the West Denver again comes out no worse than second. A San Diego 5th loss and Kansas City at 5.5 losses leading into a Week 17 game between the two and Denver wins any tiebreaker on division record over San Diego or head-to-head over Kansas City or head-to-head in a three-way tie.

Perhaps not the most likely scenarios, but it is a clinching possibility nonetheless.

Other playoff picture notes heading into Week 14:

• Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East title in two weeks by EITHER winning its next two games at home against Seattle and Dallas OR losing to Seattle AND Dallas loses to Chicago AND Philadelphia beats Dallas in Week 15.


• If Arizona continues to stumble (the Cardinals have a tough finish with Kansas City and Seattle at home and St. Louis and San Francisco on the road), Green Bay would have the inside track on the No. 1 seed with its head-to-head win over Philadelphia.


• Dallas is disadvantaged in wild-card ties as all four of the Cowboys' losses are against conference foes (Seattle and Detroit both have two conference losses), but Dallas does have a head-to-head win against Seattle if they are matched up in a two-team tie.


• With Arizona's loss on Sunday, Seattle now controls its destiny for a division title as the Seahawks are one game back and can sweep the Cardinals with a win at Arizona in Week 16.


• Even with its loss at Green Bay, New England still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC as it has head-to-head wins against all three other division leaders (Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver). HOWEVER, if New England loses at San Diego next week and Miami beats Baltimore next week, Miami could take the division lead with a win at New England in Week 15 due to a season sweep of the Patriots.


• Cincinnati now has a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North as all three other division teams lost in Week 13, but the Bengals still have three division games left including a pair against Pittsburgh which starts at home in Week 14.


• With two games left against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh controls its destiny for the AFC North title despite being 1.5 games back of Cincinnati and currently losing a three-way tiebreaker to Baltimore. If Pittsburgh wins out to go 11-5, Baltimore could get to 11-5 but would be the only other team as it plays Cleveland and the Steelers would win a tiebreaker on division record. If Cleveland gets to 11-5 to tie Pittsburgh (including a win over Baltimore), Pittsburgh and Cleveland will tie on division record and common opponents, but the Steelers would win on conference record (9-3 to 7-5).


• If Indianapolis loses next week and Houston wins, the Texans would be back in the division race as they would travel to Indy in Week 15 to attempt to tie the Colts, although they would still trail Indianapolis in record against common opponents.


• Even with the loss to Denver at home, Kansas City is still in the mix among the 7-5 teams and currently holds the No. 7 seed based on conference record, behind only Miami.

Based on how teams are performing, upcoming schedules and tiebreakers, here's how I see the season playing out for conference seeds:

AFC: 1) New England 2) Denver 3) Indianapolis 4) Cincinnati 5) Miami 6) San Diego

NFC: 1) Green Bay 2) Philadelphia 3) Seattle 4) New Orleans 5) Arizona 6) Detroit

Playoff picture standings and tiebreakers

Joe Ferreira is an NFL playoffs expert in his 23rd season of handling official playoff scenarios for the NFL. Follow Joe on Twitter: @JoeNFL.

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